Windermere Classic: Pre-Race Analysis

It's been two weeks since the Windermere schedule was released, and now the races are upon us. I probably won't be getting race recaps online until after tomorrow's racing, so here's something to munch on in the meantime. Remember, rankings are getting thrown out the window when racing starts...

Men's crews:

#1 Washington

• Last week’s rank: #1
• They’re racing: #8 Wisconsin, #11 Trinity, #2 Stanford
• Washington is looking to test itself following the last two weeks’ victories over Western Washington University and Washington State University. Wisconsin and Trinity will present challenges to the Huskies, who may be looking ahead to avenging themselves against Stanford, who swept them last season.

#2 Stanford

• Last week’s rank: #7
• They’re racing: #20 George Washington, #8 Wisconsin, #1 Washington
• Following their second Copley Cup victory against Cal in two years, Stanford looks to repeat their win against Washington from last year at Windermere. First however, they need to get past GWU and Wisconsin.

#8 Wisconsin

• Last week’s rank: #8t (with Northeastern)
• They’re racing: #1 Washington, #2 Stanford, #4 Cal
• With the toughest opponents lined up on paper, Wisconsin should look to show its mettle against three top-five crews, possibly making a east coast vs. west coast statement in the process. The Badgers are no stranger to the Redwood Shores course, however, as they’ve raced here a handful of times in the recent past. Last year, Wisconsin lost to both Cal and Stanford in separate duals by about a length each time. With only three weeks having passed since their home waters melted, Wisconsin will look to hit the water in stride, taking as many shirts as they can in the process.

#11 Trinity

• Last week’s rank: #15
• They’re racing: #19 Oregon State, #1 Washington, #20 George Washington
• The Bantams were undefeated in 2005, winning the Henley Royal Regatta’s Temple Cup to cap off that season. Last year, they won the ECAC Invitational over Michigan, Holy Cross, and one of this year’s Windermere attendees, George Washington, finishing 13th in the final USRowing coaches’ poll. One of the bigger unresolved questions is how far Trinity could have gone in 2005 had they attended IRAs, but what we know right now is that Coach Gluckman has something good going on at Trinity.

#19 Oregon State

• Last week’s rank: #19
• They’re racing: #11 Trinity, #20 George Washington, Gonzaga
• It’s fair to say that Oregon State deserved not to get dropped after beating Purdue at San Diego but losing to then-#2 Cal and then-#7 Stanford. Now the Beavers are matched with a high-performing opponent in Trinity, an opponent of equal rank in GWU, and an up-and-coming west coast men’s program in Gonzaga. Oregon State will race Washington in Seattle the week following Windermere and will race Stanford in Eugene (no 2km courses near Corvallis) the week after that.

#20 George Washington

• Last week’s rank: #20
• They’re racing: #2 Stanford, #19 Oregon State, #11 Trinity
• Coming off a 5th place finish at ECACs last year, GWU has opened the season with losses to Columbia, Navy, and Penn. Last week at the GW Invitational, however, they beat Temple and Gonzaga while losing to Cornell and Michigan. This year also marks their debut as an EARC competitor, so they’ll be looking to gain experience against Stanford while setting their sights on Oregon State and Trinity, who won over them in last year’s ECAC grand final (GW placed 5th).

#4 California

• Last week’s rank: #2
• They’re racing: #8 Wisconsin (Sunday)
• While not strictly a Windermere competitor, Cal’s dual race against Wisconsin will receive the showcasing it deserves between two heavyweight men’s powers on Sunday. Cal didn’t fall far from their #2 ranking, as they did lead Stanford for 1500m before ultimately falling to the Cardinal, but there’s no doubt that last year’s IRA varsity champion will be a contender all season long. Cal will be rested, and Wisconsin will have raced Stanford and Washington already—the advantage may go to Cal on the basis of fresh legs.

Gonzaga

• Last week’s rank: NR
• They’re racing: UC-Davis, #19 Oregon State
• Gonzaga’s already beaten UCSD (won the SDCC Cal Cup two weeks ago) and Orange Coast to make their mark on west coast rowing this season. Now they’ll look to solidify their legitimacy this year with potential victories over a strong UC-Davis boat and ranked Oregon State.

Women's crews:

#5 California

• They’re racing: #16 Notre Dame, Louisville, #15 Tennessee
• It’s not Cal’s fault that their opponents, having been announced a few weeks ago, used to be ranked #13, #16, and #9 respectively in order of racing. Then again Cal was ranked #1 before San Diego, where they lost to then #8 USC. Expect Cal to come out with the intent to dominate and prove their mettle NCAA team championship defenders.

#7 Stanford

• They’re racing: #15 Tennessee , #16 Notre Dame, Louisville
• Note that Cal and Stanford share common opponents. This surely will play into prognosticator’s predictions for next weekend’s dual with Cal! When that schedule was made, Stanford was ranked #11, so if you look at the paragraph on Cal above, you’ll see that Stanford would have been racing right in their ‘tier,’ so to speak. Now the voters have put Stanford in at #7 and dropped their opponents, so the pressure’s on to prove that ranking. With this young boat, however, the sky’s the limit.

#8 UCLA

• They’re racing: #13 Virginia, #12 UCF, #16 Notre Dame
• Ah, the intrigue of rankings! UCLA was ranked #14 at the announcement of the racing schedule, and Virginia was ranked #2 (Notre Dame at #13), but now UCLA holds perceptual advantage over all its opponents, so like Stanford, the pressure will be on to show legitimacy. UCF will be an interesting opponent, having been unranked up until last week, when they upset then-#7 Virginia.

#12 UCF

• They’re racing: #14 Washington State, #8 UCLA, #19 Washington
• As mentioned, UCF was unranked when the polls came out before the order of racing, but the schedulers look like psychics here, with good match-ups between UCF’s recent ranking and their opponents (who have curiously and nearly switched rankings with each other since that order of racing poll). Look for UCF to continue their season’s undefeated streak, building off of their upset of Virginia last week.

#13 Virginia

• They’re racing: #8 UCLA, #19 Washington, #14 Washington State
• The Cavaliers dropped six places in the rankings after UCF beat them last week—and here they are this week sharing the same opponents. While this would have been a cakewalk on paper for the #2 Virginia that the schedulers saw when making the lineups, now Virginia is racing squarely in their tier and may also be racing to salvage their pride against UCF by winning out better against their common opponents.

#14 Washington State

• They’re racing: #12 UCF, #15 Tennessee, #13 Virginia
• While this would have looked like a heavy plate for a then-#18 ranked team (facing off against an unranked, a #9, and #2 teams respectively), WSU has earned respect from its solid home victory in adverse conditions over powerhouse Washington last week. Now, WSU is racing three teams in the immediate rankings about them, so they should be racing with nothing to lose.

#15 Tennessee

• They’re racing: #7 Stanford, #14 Washington State, #5 California
• Tennessee gets local opponents to bookend their schedule here, with a rising star in WSU right in the middle. The Lady Vols dropped three places after losing to Ohio State and Michigan (in freezing weather), so hopefully the California sunshine will bring out their boatspeed. Tennessee has been bested by Notre Dame much earlier this season, and the two are racing both Cal and Stanford this weekend—maybe there’s something to be compared there, maybe not.

#16 Notre Dame

• They’re racing: #5 California, #7 Stanford, #8 UCLA
• Ouch! Notre Dame takes on the top three ranked teams this weekend in blaze-of-glory style. Two weeks prior, this schedule looked slightly more manageable with then-ranked #1, #22, and #14 opponents (with ND ranked #13). Now, ND has dropped three places (despite not racing last week) and is facing more intimidating numbers. They’ll surely be looking to catch any one of their opponents unawares—a 14 second loss to Grand Valley State two weeks ago just might put some unsuspecting opponents at ease.

#19 Washington

• They’re racing: Louisville, #13 Virginia, #12 UCF
• It was a hard fall for Washington, dropping nine places and losing their lone first-place vote after their five-second loss to WSU last weekend in the windy, choppy Snake River conditions. Both the Apple State schools will be racing Virginia and UCF, so perhaps some measure of comparative speed can be gleaned from those margins. Otherwise, Washington’s twelve-place drop since the schedule was set will make expectations harder on them, though perhaps a vengeful weekend of victories may be just what Coach McElvaine’s crews need.

Louisville

• They’re racing: #19 Washington, #5 Cal, #7 Stanford
• Louisville gets three traditional Pac-10 rowing powerhouses in a row, and none of those opponents should take Louisville’s unranked status at face value—from all appearances, they’ve dropped from 16th to 17th to unranked status since their loss to Tennessee on March 24th, having raced no other crew in the intervening three weeks. Washington may end up with a big bullseye on their backs as the Cardinals’ first and perhaps most winnable race opponent on paper. Louisville missed out on the #20 ranking by seventeen votes, which should remind us all that rankings really don’t matter within a few places.

Arizona State

• They’re racing: Sonoma State
• A big welcome to ASU for making their first trip out to the Windermere Crew Classic—formerly a recreational club crew founded in 2001, the arrival of new coaching blood has helped ASU turn into a competitive club crew in about the span of nine months. ASU’s invitation to Windermere can only mean good things for them as another growing Pac-10 program rowing out in the desert. They were at San Diego two weeks ago, and they’ll be looking to show improvements to their speed. I suspect they are well-matched with Sonoma State on paper, so listen for that first 500m call.

Sonoma State

• They’re racing: Arizona State
• Sonoma State is no stranger to Windermere, having at least one team out here before, though it may have been a men’s crew. As the newest collegiate rowing club in the greater Bay Area, it’s only in its fourth year of existence, but SSU has already cut its teeth against high-level opponents at the San Diego Crew Classic. This is SSU’s only race, so look for them to get out fast and take the wind out of ASU’s sails.

Lightweights:

#1 Princeton

• They’re racing: #5 UCF, Loyola Marymount, #7 Stanford
• On paper, every race here is Princeton’s to lose. They’ve beaten UCF within the last week or so, and LMU would need to have proved itself to be in Princeton’s class for them to have a chance on paper. Stanford may be faster than it’s been any previous year, but they have yet to prove it this year against the likes of Princeton. Princeton’s light 2V will race the Cal open womens’ 3V and Arizona State, which should be interesting and fun races—Arizona State’s lightweight boat showed up at the San Diego Crew Classic, but they were not able to avoid the 30+ second victory that Stanford laid down, and the Princeton race against Cal’s 3V should be an intriguing case of racing up a level for the lights.

#5 UCF

• They’re racing: #1 Princeton, #7 Stanford, Loyola Marymount
• We know they lost to Princeton last week, but if it was an off day for the Golden Knights, look for some renewed focus. But as noted by JW Burk in Fight in the Dog, 20 seconds is a lot to make up in a week. Their race against Stanford should be a close one—Stanford may be suffering from less exposure to the good voters in the lightweight women’s poll, as lightweight women’s rowing is not so widely known out west. Look for UCF to race with something to prove.

#7 Stanford

• They’re racing: Loyola Marymount , #5 UCF, #1 Princeton
• Stanford sits at seventh place in the polls, probably a victim of both last season’s disappointment and not enough exposure this season. Well, it’s time to see if those year-round rowing conditions have helped rejuvenate the roster this year. The Cardinal can’t afford to look ahead to Central Florida—LMU was not among the Coggeshall Cup field in San Diego, which Stanford won easily. Having said that, UCF should definitely be within the Cardinal crosshairs, and if they have the speed, they’ll give Princeton a good run for their money, possibily swiping it from under the Tigers’ collective nose.

Arizona State

• They’re racing: Princeton L2V
• The ASU lights were in at San Diego’s Coggeshall Cup two weeks ago with Chapman and Stanford, but they’ll be looking to show improvements to their speed on a course slightly more sheltered from the elements (in the first thousand anyway). Credit ASU if they can stay composed and hang with Princeton.